Toshiya Tsugami

Toshiya Tsugami

Researcher; Adjunct Fellow, Japan Institute of International Affairs

Toshiya Tsugami is a China researcher, head of the consultancy Tsugami Workshop, and an adjunct fellow for the Japan Institute of International Affairs. He entered the Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI, currently Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry) in 1980, and has served as a counsellor in the economic division of Japan’s embassy in Beijing, chief of the Northeast Asia Department of MITI’s Trade Policy Bureau, and senior researcher at the Research Institute of Economy, Trade, and Industry. 

Chinese President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang arrive for the closing session of the National People's Congress (NPC) at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, on 11 March 2024. (Tingshu Wang/Reuters)

Xi Jinping's conundrum fixing the Chinese economy

Japanese academic Toshiya Tsugami notes that even as China's economy is facing a difficult time, the Chinese government's efforts to prevent the bubble from bursting might in fact be having the opposite effect in the long run, and the more important thing is to fix structural problems.
Supporters await the arrival of Chinese President Xi Jinping in San Francisco, California, US, on 14 November 2023. (Jason Henry/AFP)

How changes in China's investment environment will impact the world

Japanese academic Toshiya Tsugami analyses China's recent trade and investment flows amid US-China rivalry, highlighting the EV and semiconductor sectors which have become key battlegrounds in the competition between China and the West. How will development plans for the Chinese market and the global business environment be affected?
Containers at the Nanshagang area in Guangzhou port, 18 September 2023. (CNS)

Will the BRI's future be impacted by the slowing Chinese economy?

Japanese academic Toshiya Tsugami notes that while China's economy is likely to fall into medium- to long-term stagnation, its outward investments and financing through the Belt and Road Initiative may not be immediately affected. However, other factors may have a ripple effect on China's ability to maintain the momentum of the BRI.
People walk through an underpass in Beijing on 22 March 2023. (Wang Zhao/AFP)

Will China's economy suffer a 'lost decade' just like Japan?

Pondering the possibility that China’s economy is going the way of Japan's 30 years ago, Japanese researcher Toshiya Tsugami analyses some similarities and differences between the two trajectories.
A woman walks across the street during morning rush hour, following the outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), in the Central Business District (CBD) in Chaoyang District, Beijing, China, 21 November 2022. (Tingshu Wang/Reuters)

Why the 20th Party Congress was not a 'decisive victory' for Xi

Japanese researcher Toshiya Tsugami observes that the exuberant tone of China's previous Party Congress reports has been carried over in this year’s 20th Party Congress. However, the external environment has changed much for China and its targets could be a stretch in this context.
Pedestrians pass fencing surrounding a residential neighborhood placed under lockdown due to Covid-19 in Shanghai, China, on 6 July 2022. (Qilai Shen/Bloomberg)

Japanese researcher: China's zero-Covid policy and prospects for the Chinese economy

The impact of the Shanghai lockdown is far-reaching, not least the way it is weakening Chinese exports and consumption, which have helped China weather the economic storm thus far, says Japanese researcher Toshiya Tsugami. This is having ripple effects on global supply chains and may further debilitate them before they have a chance to normalise. To stave off a severe economic crisis, China must deal with three pressing issues.